Pittsburgh Review

Kyle Nicolas has shown significant improvement and confidence in his pitching since his challenging debut last year. After a difficult start on September 19, 2023, against the Cubs, where he allowed six runs while only getting one out, his second outing was slightly better. Despite walking two batters and surrendering a run over two innings, he realized he could compete at the Major League level.

“I always knew my stuff’s been good,” Nicolas said. “It’s just been filling up the zone. They’re going to have to respect all my pitches in the zone.”

The 25-year-old rookie right-hander's performance is backed by data, including a 3.28 ERA and 40 strikeouts over 35 2/3 innings. Metrics suggest that his 98 mph fastball and spin-breaking offerings are among the best on the Pirates' staff.

The "Stuff+" metric evaluates pitches based on movement, velocity, release point, and more, scoring them on a scale where 100 is average. Scores above 100 are considered above average. David Bednar and Aroldis Chapman lead the Pirates with scores of 132 each. Surprisingly, Nicolas follows closely with a score of 128.

“We always knew it,” pitching coach Oscar Marin said after hinting that internal metrics align with public Stuff+. “It’s one of the reasons why we wanted him up here.”

However, Stuff+ does not account for location accuracy. Earlier this year, Nicolas struggled with consistency and had an ERA of 6.55 through his first twelve outings. Adjustments were made to improve his performance: repositioning him on the mound for better visual alignment towards home plate, emphasizing head stability during delivery, and building his confidence through more Major League reps.

These changes have yielded results as Nicolas has allowed just one earned run over his last fourteen outings and held hitters to a .164 batting average during that stretch.

“You see the way your pitches can play against some of the best pitchers in the world, and it builds confidence when you’re able to get them out,” Nicolas said.

Nicolas now confidently attacks hitters as he did in the Minors by aiming for the heart of the plate but trusting that his pitches will end up elsewhere.

“Just aiming for the middle, the heart of the plate and just trusting it’s not going to end up there,” Nicolas said. “It’s going to end up above or below.”

Marin added that this approach is effective due to Nicolas's ability to tunnel off his fastball with two plus breaking pitches: one with a 12-to-6 action and another resembling a heater before breaking sharply left.

“It’s the result of tunneling off of his fastball,” Marin said. “When you have a combination of not only a fastball but two breaking pitches that are plus – one has 12-to-6 action to it and one looks like a heater and just takes a hard left – when he gets ahead of you, it has a tendency to make hitters worry about what he’s going to throw.”